Down the Backstretch, generally considered a reliable news source for Minnesota's running community, appears to have engaged in push polling over the weekend on behalf of Gravy. A poll conducted during the Thanksgiving holiday purports to identify the favorite Thanksgiving foods of DtB readers. Unfortunately, the poll's many structural and methodological problems reveal it to be, at best, a viral marketing effort to inflate the value of Gravy, possibly with the aim of destroying Turkey.
The single-question poll asked participants, "What are your favorite Thanksgiving foods?" We will not attempt to quantify the implications of the obvious drafting flaw, except to note that many readers may have mistakenly believed they would be able to select more than one item from the list. Those respondents would have been less likely to prioritize among their top choices, making the poll less likely to reflect their true favorites. Respondents were given the option of changing their vote but DtB refuses to provide any data on how many actually did.
A substantially larger problem is how DtB framed its single question. A press release issued when the poll opened on Tuesday, November 25th editorialized, "We think underrated (and un-ranked) Gravy is primed for a break-out performance in 2008." By implying the correct response, DtB effectively changed its question to, "Do you disagree that Gravy is underrated?" This is a classic example of push-polling, and it is irresponsible at best, morally reprehensible at worst.
Many readers will certainly agree that this was merely irresponsible. After all, Gravy finished fifth of six, well behind Stuffing and Mashed Potatoes. The perennial favorites carried the day and Gravy only received one more vote than lowly Cranberries. No harm, no foul.
That would be true if a closer examination of these results did not reveal a much stronger performance for Gravy. First of all, Gravy entered the poll unranked but still earned a respectable 13% of the vote. It beat a ranked opponent in the process and improved on its sixth-place finish in 2007. Taken together it seems clear that Gravy exceeded expectations in a year that DtB's poll suggested Gravy should exceed expectations.
A second indicator, however, is even more revealing. Mashed Potatoes skyrocketed from fourth-place in 2007 to second-place in 2008, just four percentage points out of first. And while it may be true that some (freaks) love the simple, unadulterated taste of dry Mashed Potatoes, it is common knowledge that most people enjoy Mashed Potatoes best when they act as a vehicle for Gravy. To the extent that a vote for Mashed Potatoes is at least a fractional vote for Gravy, a significant proportion of Mashed Potatoes' 2008 improvement may be attributable to DtB's push-poll. Indeed, evidence shows that Gravy has a similar, if less significant, effect on Stuffing performance.
In other words, DtB not only framed its question such that Gravy was likely to exceed expectations, it also offered at least three different avenues by which respondents could, and did, indicate some preference for Gravy. Any comprehensive analysis would have to conclude both, (1) that Gravy did, in fact, enjoy the breakout performance DtB predicted and; (2) that Gravy's breakout was not so much predicted by DtB as created by the DtB poll.
The lingering question for Minnesotans wondering where to turn for reliable local running news is Why. Certainly DtB would not be the first good-hearted start-up tempted by the Gravy Train. But what about the harm visited upon Turkey this weekend? The holiday's signature food not only fell to fourth-place, but at meals across the state Gravy literally harvested Turkey's innards for its own use. If Gravy continues to expand its empire at Turkey's expense we will soon sip our Thanksgiving dinners from ladles. Our children may never know the majesty of the forgotten bird, speaking colloquially of Gravy-Day as our ears echo with hallow dissonance. Did DtB willfully and knowingly contribute to this weekend's Turkey obliteration? The public demands to know the full extent of DtB's relationship with Gravy, and what future intentions the alliance has towards Turkey.
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